Game number 5

The score (after 4 games) is: White 2, Black 5 (match to 7 points)

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Match Information

Date	août 05, 2008
Place	Slot Backgammon training match
Annotator	Fabrice Liardet
Comment	This match is played with the rules of Nack Ballard's Slot Backgammon, which state that the first move of the game must always be "a slot", which means a move that leaves a blot in direct range of the opponent's rear checkers (points 7 to 2).

Move number 1: Black to play 14

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: White 167, Black 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cIjwACAAKAAA

• Black moves 13/9 6/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			13/9 6/5

Move number 2: White to play 41

Pip counts: White 167, Black 162
Position ID: 0HPhATDgc/ABMA Match ID: MAHmACAAKAAA

• White moves 24/23 24/20*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		-0,129	(Money: +0,002)
	0,499 0,144 0,008 - 0,501 0,142 0,006
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0,146
2.	Double, pass	+1,000	+0,854
3.	Double, take	+0,011	-0,135
Proper cube action:		No double, take (13,7%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/23 24/20*	+0,400
			0,554 0,169 0,011 - 0,446 0,109 0,003
	2	2	24/20* 6/5	+0,333 ( -0,067)
			0,535 0,161 0,011 - 0,465 0,125 0,005
	3	2	24/20* 8/7	+0,286 ( -0,114)
			0,524 0,166 0,012 - 0,476 0,126 0,006
	4	0	24/23 13/9	-0,073 ( -0,474)
			0,448 0,127 0,007 - 0,552 0,179 0,008
	5	0	13/9 6/5	-0,092 ( -0,492)
			0,444 0,127 0,008 - 0,556 0,192 0,015

Annotation

At least the hitting responses to the slots are generally easy to play !

Move number 3: Black to play 51

Pip counts: White 162, Black 182
Position ID: 4HPwARHgufAAWA Match ID: cInmACAAKAAA

• Black moves bar/20 6/5*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/20 6/5*	-0,296
			0,482 0,120 0,005 - 0,518 0,171 0,013
	2	2	bar/20 9/8	-0,362 ( -0,065)
			0,448 0,100 0,003 - 0,552 0,152 0,007
	3	2	bar/20 24/23	-0,391 ( -0,095)
			0,446 0,103 0,003 - 0,554 0,164 0,008
	4	0	bar/24 13/8	-0,477 ( -0,181)
			0,431 0,107 0,003 - 0,569 0,184 0,012
	5	0	bar/24 9/4	-0,504 ( -0,207)
			0,429 0,104 0,003 - 0,571 0,188 0,013

Move number 4: White to play 51

Pip counts: White 167, Black 176
Position ID: 0LnwgDDgc/ABSA Match ID: MIHmACAAKAAA

• White moves bar/20* 6/5*

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		-0,021	(Money: +0,096)
	0,518 0,171 0,013 - 0,482 0,120 0,005
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0,296
2.	Double, pass	+1,000	+0,704
3.	Double, take	+0,208	-0,088
Proper cube action:		No double, take (11,1%)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0,334)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/20* 6/5*	+0,710
			0,610 0,233 0,025 - 0,390 0,087 0,003
	2	0	bar/20* 23/22	+0,477 ( -0,232)
			0,571 0,186 0,014 - 0,429 0,088 0,002
	3	0	bar/20* 8/7	+0,341 ( -0,369)
			0,538 0,174 0,013 - 0,462 0,105 0,004
	4	0	bar/24 13/8	+0,017 ( -0,693)
			0,465 0,137 0,007 - 0,535 0,145 0,006
	5	0	bar/24 23/18	+0,005 ( -0,704)
			0,473 0,120 0,007 - 0,527 0,150 0,005

Move number 5: Black to play 11

Pip counts: White 161, Black 201
Position ID: 0HPwARHgXHgAbA Match ID: cInkACAAKAAA

• Black moves bar/23 bar/24 6/5*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 bar/24 6/5*	-0,624
			0,449 0,099 0,005 - 0,551 0,234 0,030
	2	2	bar/23(2)	-0,793 ( -0,169)
			0,407 0,085 0,003 - 0,593 0,235 0,022
	3	0	bar/24(2) 8/7 6/5*	-0,860 ( -0,236)
			0,434 0,094 0,005 - 0,566 0,271 0,041
	4	0	bar/24(2) 9/8 6/5*	-0,861 ( -0,237)
			0,418 0,090 0,004 - 0,582 0,259 0,032
	5	0	bar/24(2) 6/5*/4	-0,885 ( -0,261)
			0,422 0,090 0,005 - 0,578 0,266 0,038

Annotation

When the opponent is 2 points away, the trailer must be very quick to double as soon as there is a gammon threat, which is certainly the case here with the possibility of sending a fifth checker back. That is why although White is on the bar and his threats are not of the crushing variety, the double is not in question, and one more time the take is.

Move number 6: White doubles to 2

Pip counts: White 166, Black 197
Position ID: 0Fx4ADrQc/ABSA Match ID: MBngACAAKAAA

• Black accepts

Alert: wrong take ( -0,020)!

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity

+0,417

(Money: +0,371)

Cubeful equities:

Double, pass

+1,000

Double, take

+1,020

+0,020

No double

+0,858

-0,142

Proper cube action:

Double, pass

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	0,587	0,259	0,032	-	0,413	0,090	0,004	+0,417	+0,858
Standard error	0,001	0,001	0,000	-	0,001	0,001	0,000	0,007	0,009
Player Black owns 2-cube	0,603	0,274	0,036	-	0,397	0,089	0,004	+1,020	+1,020
Standard error	0,001	0,001	0,001	-	0,001	0,001	0,000	0,010	0,010

Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 831940216 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

No redoubles or gammons by Black to consider here, but White's gammon rate is an overwhelming factor, and the quality of its estimation can make a huge swing on the take decision. I took a very lowish 33% figure while 45% was the correct one, so no wonder I was rather confident in taking !

Our now usual calculation yields a take point of 31.5% with a 33% gammon rate, and of 38% with a 45% gammon rate. Plug some backgammons in (White can still use a backgammon win) and one can imagine the take point being pushed to 40%. Black is still well in the game, and 40% actually turns out to be his winning chances, so this take decision seems to be absolutely borderline.

Move number 7: White to play 61

Pip counts: White 166, Black 197
Position ID: 0Fx4ADrQc/ABSA Match ID: EQHnACAAKAAA

• White moves bar/18

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/24 8/2*	+0,409
			0,538 0,210 0,024 - 0,462 0,127 0,008
	2	2	bar/24 13/7	+0,386 ( -0,023)
			0,533 0,204 0,021 - 0,467 0,130 0,008
•	??	2	bar/18	+0,382 ( -0,027)
			0,539 0,194 0,020 - 0,461 0,126 0,006

Annotation

It is always a bit depressing to play the worst possible move. Here hitting seems to reduce the number of hit and covers and offer Black with only one dice to develop his stack on the ace point. This outweighs sending a checker too far and allowing tons of return hits.

Move number 8: Black to play 31

Pip counts: White 159, Black 197
Position ID: 0HPwQRDQXHgAOg Match ID: UYnlACAAKAAA

• Black moves 23/20* 8/7*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	23/20* 8/7*	-0,212
			0,523 0,142 0,008 - 0,477 0,167 0,015
	2	2	23/20* 9/8	-0,322 ( -0,109)
			0,475 0,113 0,006 - 0,525 0,177 0,015
	3	2	24/20*	-0,326 ( -0,114)
			0,484 0,111 0,005 - 0,516 0,187 0,019
	4	2	8/7* 8/5	-0,358 ( -0,146)
			0,479 0,128 0,006 - 0,521 0,200 0,021
	5	0	23/20* 5/4	-0,374 ( -0,162)
			0,466 0,110 0,005 - 0,534 0,195 0,020

Move number 9: White to play 41

Pip counts: White 186, Black 193
Position ID: 0Fp4QDjgOfgAZA Match ID: EQHmACAAKAAA

• White moves bar/24 bar/21

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/24 bar/21	+0,279
			0,506 0,172 0,016 - 0,494 0,134 0,007

Move number 10: Black to play 61

Pip counts: White 181, Black 193
Position ID: 4Dn4ACnQWnhAOA Match ID: UQnnACAAKAAA

• Black moves 13/7 5/4*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/7 5/4*	-0,258
			0,508 0,135 0,008 - 0,492 0,178 0,015
	2	2	13/7 9/8	-0,290 ( -0,032)
			0,490 0,118 0,006 - 0,510 0,177 0,013
	3	2	24/23 13/7	-0,335 ( -0,077)
			0,484 0,110 0,005 - 0,516 0,195 0,019
	4	2	24/18 5/4*	-0,393 ( -0,135)
			0,470 0,102 0,005 - 0,530 0,208 0,025
	5	0	7/1* 5/4*	-0,414 ( -0,156)
			0,457 0,121 0,006 - 0,543 0,207 0,023

Move number 11: White to play 32

Pip counts: White 185, Black 186
Position ID: yLZwQDjgOfgAVA Match ID: EYHpACAAKAAA

• White moves bar/23 24/21*

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,068)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/22 23/21*	+0,443
			0,555 0,213 0,022 - 0,445 0,096 0,004
•	2	2	bar/23 24/21*	+0,375 ( -0,068)
			0,529 0,203 0,019 - 0,471 0,116 0,006
	3	0	bar/23 8/5*	+0,239 ( -0,204)
			0,487 0,171 0,016 - 0,513 0,177 0,015
	4	0	bar/22 13/11	+0,214 ( -0,229)
			0,485 0,159 0,013 - 0,515 0,156 0,011
	5	0	bar/20	+0,210 ( -0,233)
			0,486 0,156 0,012 - 0,514 0,141 0,008

Annotation

A simple oversight of the second and better hit. Since the 23 point is blocked six points away, it is both closer to jumping and more flexible to spread checkers with B/22 23/21*.

Move number 12: Black to play 41

Pip counts: White 180, Black 207
Position ID: 4Dn4ABlgWzggXA Match ID: UQnmACAAKAAA

• Black moves bar/24 13/9

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/24 13/9	-0,155
			0,552 0,154 0,010 - 0,448 0,170 0,012
	2	2	bar/20	-0,182 ( -0,027)
			0,525 0,124 0,006 - 0,475 0,156 0,008
	3	2	bar/21 9/8	-0,239 ( -0,084)
			0,510 0,128 0,007 - 0,490 0,170 0,012
	4	2	bar/21 24/23	-0,271 ( -0,116)
			0,509 0,127 0,007 - 0,491 0,187 0,017
	5	0	bar/24 9/5	-0,365 ( -0,210)
			0,486 0,113 0,007 - 0,514 0,216 0,022

Annotation

It is very bad to have four checkers on the ace point, but it is extremely good to trap three checkers behind a four-prime. The resulting position is very inflexible, but still advantageous for Black (at least it would be in a money game), while the alternative is about equal.
All that the anchoring plays has for it is the score. Gammons are of no value to Black but extremely valuable to White (a 0.7 gammon value instead of the normal 0.5), and that is not far from enough to tip the balance in favour of anchoring.

Move number 13: White to play 65

Pip counts: White 180, Black 202
Position ID: YNswIDzgOfgAGQ Match ID: EQH3ACAAKAAA

• White moves 21/15 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	21/15 13/8	+0,227
			0,480 0,175 0,014 - 0,520 0,134 0,007
	2	2	21/10	+0,199 ( -0,029)
			0,474 0,164 0,012 - 0,526 0,133 0,007
	3	2	21/15 8/3	+0,139 ( -0,088)
			0,453 0,153 0,012 - 0,547 0,161 0,011
	4	2	13/2	+0,130 ( -0,098)
			0,447 0,155 0,012 - 0,553 0,146 0,008
	5	2	13/8 13/7	+0,123 ( -0,104)
			0,444 0,154 0,012 - 0,556 0,149 0,008

Move number 14: Black to play 62

Pip counts: White 169, Black 202
Position ID: 4HnwBBhg2zAgPA Match ID: UQnrACAAKAAA

• Black moves 24/22 24/18

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,067)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	24/18 20/18	-0,075
			0,567 0,141 0,005 - 0,433 0,142 0,006
•	2	2	24/22 24/18	-0,142 ( -0,067)
			0,555 0,147 0,008 - 0,445 0,166 0,012
	3	2	24/22 20/14	-0,214 ( -0,139)
			0,529 0,135 0,007 - 0,471 0,179 0,013
	4	2	24/16	-0,234 ( -0,159)
			0,527 0,132 0,007 - 0,473 0,188 0,015
	5	0	24/18 13/11	-0,227 ( -0,152)
			0,533 0,134 0,008 - 0,467 0,193 0,015

Annotation

But now anchoring would be clearly better ; apart from cutting off gammon losses, it would provide the back checkers with an ideally placed stepstone.

Move number 15: White to play 42

Pip counts: White 169, Black 194
Position ID: YNswSDLgefAEGA Match ID: EQHqACAAKAAA

• White moves 15/11 13/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	8/4 6/4	+0,168
			0,469 0,156 0,007 - 0,531 0,121 0,004
	2	2	23/21 15/11	+0,151 ( -0,017)
			0,469 0,143 0,008 - 0,531 0,124 0,005
•	3	2	15/11 13/11	+0,148 ( -0,021)
			0,467 0,145 0,006 - 0,533 0,122 0,004
	4	2	13/7*	+0,116 ( -0,052)
			0,445 0,149 0,011 - 0,555 0,151 0,008
	5	2	23/21 8/4	+0,111 ( -0,057)
			0,459 0,129 0,007 - 0,541 0,142 0,007

Annotation

Gammons are dictating the play again, and of course making the inner board point wins more gammons. I was a bit surprised that my play didn't win more games though, since the 11 point seems likely to be a long-term annoyance for Black. Well, I guess inner board points are also a long-term annoyance.
Notice also that moving near the edge of the prime is an option, though loose the play is. This theme will occur again in the upcoming moves.

Move number 16: Black to play 33

Pip counts: White 163, Black 194
Position ID: 4HnMARhg2zBIMg Match ID: UYntACAAKAAA

• Black moves 24/18 13/10(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/18 13/10(2)	+0,097
			0,629 0,168 0,007 - 0,371 0,111 0,003
	2	2	24/21(2) 13/10(2)	+0,036 ( -0,061)
			0,606 0,157 0,007 - 0,394 0,122 0,003
	3	2	24/15 18/15	+0,012 ( -0,085)
			0,603 0,146 0,006 - 0,397 0,133 0,004
	4	2	24/21 18/15 13/10(2)	+0,006 ( -0,091)
			0,610 0,168 0,009 - 0,390 0,144 0,007
	5	2	24/18(2)	-0,057 ( -0,154)
			0,566 0,123 0,004 - 0,434 0,131 0,003

Annotation

Anchoring and adding a point to the prime is a great shot, but not nearly as great as I had thought. The GNU figures say that White is still very well in the game, probably because he can allow himself some looseness and still get a reasonable high anchor game.

Move number 17: White to play 63

Pip counts: White 163, Black 182
Position ID: YNsGmCTgecwBGA Match ID: EQHvACAAKAAA

• White moves 23/14

Ply

Move

Equity

11/5* 8/5

+0,048

0,408	0,156	0,008	-	0,592	0,131	0,004	+0,048	+0,048
0,002	0,001	0,000	-	0,002	0,001	0,000	0,004	0,004

Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 834113418 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

•

23/14

+0,047 ( -0,001)

0,439	0,117	0,004	-	0,561	0,127	0,005	+0,047	+0,047
0,001	0,001	0,000	-	0,001	0,001	0,000	0,003	0,003

Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 834113418 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

23/20 8/2

+0,042 ( -0,006)

0,430 0,124 0,004 - 0,570 0,129 0,004

23/20 11/5*

+0,012 ( -0,036)

0,417 0,121 0,005 - 0,583 0,149 0,007

11/5* 6/3*

-0,109 ( -0,157)

0,359 0,117 0,005 - 0,641 0,187 0,012

Annotation

A diificult play. Priming considerations tell that hopping must be better than pointing on the five, but again White is not faring as bad as it looks when he doesn't hop. And gammon-go considerations tell that making the five-point when sending Black to the bar is pretty important too. While hopping wins clearly more games, the play are in fact very close to each other.

I rolled out both plays and although it decreased White's equity after both plays, it made them even less distinguishable.

Move number 18: Black to play 64

Pip counts: White 154, Black 182
Position ID: 4HnMBRBg2waYJA Match ID: UQnzACAAKAAA

• Black moves 22/16 20/16

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	22/16 20/16	+0,034
			0,595 0,124 0,003 - 0,405 0,109 0,002
	2	2	20/10	-0,016 ( -0,050)
			0,574 0,130 0,003 - 0,426 0,114 0,003
	3	2	24/20 22/16	-0,035 ( -0,069)
			0,550 0,116 0,003 - 0,450 0,095 0,002
	4	2	24/18 20/16	-0,070 ( -0,104)
			0,558 0,118 0,003 - 0,442 0,129 0,003
	5	0	24/18 22/18	-0,081 ( -0,115)
			0,548 0,102 0,002 - 0,452 0,123 0,003

Move number 19: White to play 32

Pip counts: White 154, Black 172
Position ID: YNsGZiDgecwFEA Match ID: EYHpACAAKAAA

• White moves 14/11 8/6

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,061)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	23/20 13/11	+0,097
			0,466 0,114 0,003 - 0,534 0,117 0,004
	2	2	23/20 8/6	+0,072 ( -0,025)
			0,455 0,111 0,003 - 0,545 0,122 0,004
	3	2	14/11 13/11	+0,059 ( -0,038)
			0,443 0,121 0,002 - 0,557 0,107 0,003
	4	2	23/21 14/11	+0,053 ( -0,044)
			0,442 0,118 0,003 - 0,558 0,113 0,003
	5	2	23/20 14/12	+0,048 ( -0,050)
			0,444 0,110 0,003 - 0,556 0,120 0,004
•	6	2	14/11 8/6	+0,036 ( -0,061)
			0,432 0,119 0,002 - 0,568 0,110 0,003

Annotation

This was bad judgement. Playing to the edge of the prime is more important than safetying the blot (because being hit is not the end of the world, as noted before), and 8/6 is not even the best 2 after safetying the blot. The reason of that is not that clear to me, because although one more man to aim at the five point is good, one spare on the midpoint in case Black breaks one of his outfield point seems nice too. I am probably missing something here.

Move number 20: Black to play 51

Pip counts: White 149, Black 172
Position ID: 4HOcAxBg2wZmIA Match ID: UYnmACAAKAAA

• Black moves 16/15 16/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	16/15 16/11	+0,096
			0,626 0,130 0,003 - 0,374 0,109 0,003
	2	2	24/23 16/11	+0,036 ( -0,060)
			0,605 0,130 0,003 - 0,395 0,121 0,003
	3	2	24/18	+0,035 ( -0,061)
			0,583 0,100 0,002 - 0,417 0,091 0,002
	4	2	16/10	+0,029 ( -0,067)
			0,595 0,127 0,003 - 0,405 0,113 0,002
	5	2	24/23 18/13	-0,037 ( -0,132)
			0,581 0,116 0,003 - 0,419 0,137 0,004

Annotation

24/18 might be the automatic move, but slotting the sixth point of the prime and keeping an eye on White's inner board is important. If Black plays 24/18, White will either come at the edge of the prime either fill his board at extra speed, and Black is bound to leave some shots when disengaging his outfield points or when rolling the prime. Moreover, although the game move leaves a double shot, it also leaves plenty of duplication on ones and threes.

Move number 21: White to play 51

Pip counts: White 149, Black 166
Position ID: YNsWYiDgc5wDEA Match ID: EYHmACAAKAAA

• White moves 11/10* 6/1*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	11/10* 6/1*	+0,068
			0,431 0,142 0,004 - 0,569 0,128 0,004
	2	2	13/8 11/10*	+0,038 ( -0,030)
			0,422 0,135 0,003 - 0,578 0,117 0,004
	3	2	11/10*/5	+0,010 ( -0,058)
			0,414 0,126 0,003 - 0,586 0,126 0,004
	4	2	11/10* 8/3	-0,046 ( -0,114)
			0,392 0,117 0,003 - 0,608 0,143 0,006
	5	2	11/10* 11/6	-0,078 ( -0,146)
			0,374 0,120 0,004 - 0,626 0,137 0,005

Annotation

The double hit would be best even for money play. While being hit back is no disaster, having a checker on the ace point if missed is costly in the long term since White is looking for some partial counter-priming chances. Anyway it is the time to set Black off balance, with some chances to have a go at the edge of the prime while Black is still on the bar.

Move number 22: Black to play 53

Pip counts: White 143, Black 177
Position ID: wXOaAxBg2xYwYA Match ID: UYnuACAAKAAA

• Black moves bar/22 bar/20

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/22 bar/20	+0,089
			0,633 0,152 0,003 - 0,367 0,122 0,003

Move number 23: White to play 11

Pip counts: White 143, Black 169
Position ID: YNsWMAnBc5oDEA Match ID: EYHkACAAKAAA

• White moves 11/10(2) 6/5*(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	11/10(2) 6/5*(2)	+0,173
			0,473 0,157 0,004 - 0,527 0,105 0,003
	2	2	23/22 11/10 6/5*(2)	+0,164 ( -0,009)
			0,468 0,157 0,005 - 0,532 0,108 0,004
	3	2	23/21 6/5*(2)	+0,144 ( -0,030)
			0,463 0,151 0,004 - 0,537 0,113 0,004
	4	2	10/8 6/5*(2)	+0,130 ( -0,043)
			0,454 0,154 0,004 - 0,546 0,110 0,003
	5	2	13/11 6/5*(2)	+0,128 ( -0,045)
			0,451 0,156 0,004 - 0,549 0,114 0,004

Move number 24: Black to play 62

Pip counts: White 139, Black 174
Position ID: YXOOAxBg2xYwRA Match ID: UQnrACAAKAAA

• Black moves bar/23 22/16

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 22/16	-0,071
			0,579 0,115 0,002 - 0,421 0,158 0,005
	2	2	bar/23 11/5	-0,266 ( -0,195)
			0,515 0,115 0,003 - 0,485 0,201 0,008
	3	0	bar/23 10/4	-0,430 ( -0,359)
			0,466 0,113 0,002 - 0,534 0,242 0,014
	4	0	bar/23 9/3	-0,568 ( -0,497)
			0,414 0,100 0,002 - 0,586 0,262 0,017
	5	0	bar/23 8/2*	-0,578 ( -0,506)
			0,395 0,095 0,002 - 0,605 0,244 0,015

Move number 25: White to play 53

Pip counts: White 139, Black 166
Position ID: YNsWZBBhc44DEA Match ID: EYHuACAAKAAA

• White moves 23/20 13/8

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,033)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	23/20 10/5	+0,117
			0,445 0,157 0,004 - 0,555 0,108 0,004
•	2	2	23/20 13/8	+0,084 ( -0,033)
			0,437 0,146 0,003 - 0,563 0,109 0,003
	3	2	13/5	+0,009 ( -0,108)
			0,403 0,142 0,002 - 0,597 0,095 0,003
	4	2	23/20 8/3	+0,006 ( -0,110)
			0,407 0,133 0,004 - 0,593 0,135 0,005
	5	2	23/20 6/1	-0,008 ( -0,125)
			0,405 0,127 0,003 - 0,595 0,132 0,005

Annotation

Sure White could get pointed on, but moving to the edge of the prime is too important to be passed. Now it looks like 10/5 is a more balanced five than 13/8, but I am not sure I can find objective reasons for it. The distribution seems somewhat better after 10/5, but I like the spare on the 10 which could be a useful blocking point in the future. Maybe there are tactical reasons that I overlook.

Move number 26: Black to play 61

Pip counts: White 131, Black 166
Position ID: YfMcAwJg2xZkEA Match ID: UQnnACAAKAAA

• Black moves 23/22 11/5*

Alert: bad move ( -0,120)

Ply

Move

Equity

23/16

-0,104

0,545	0,090	0,003	-	0,455	0,135	0,003	-0,104	-0,104
0,002	0,001	0,000	-	0,002	0,002	0,000	0,005	0,005

Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 834113418 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

•

23/22 11/5*

-0,224 ( -0,120)

0,529	0,111	0,005	-	0,471	0,193	0,006	-0,224	-0,224
0,002	0,001	0,000	-	0,002	0,001	0,000	0,004	0,004

Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 834113418 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

11/5*/4

-0,190 ( -0,086)

0,531 0,116 0,003 - 0,469 0,173 0,006

16/9

-0,191 ( -0,087)

0,519 0,106 0,002 - 0,481 0,158 0,004

23/22 16/10

-0,191 ( -0,087)

0,517 0,104 0,002 - 0,483 0,156 0,004

Annotation

I don't think that I even considered anything else than hitting with this roll, which is why I didn't see the possibility of making the 16 point. It still looks strange to me to provide White with a direct route to victory. True, if hit Black will get a counter at the ace point blot, but I think that my main mistake was to overestimate Black's chances by a lot after the text move.

Move number 27: White to play 64

Pip counts: White 136, Black 159
Position ID: 0LYNZAhh8xwDQA Match ID: EQHzACAAKAAA

• White moves bar/21 8/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/21 8/2	+0,079
			0,424 0,161 0,003 - 0,576 0,117 0,004
	2	2	bar/21 10/4	+0,071 ( -0,008)
			0,423 0,156 0,003 - 0,577 0,127 0,005

Move number 28: Black to play 42

Pip counts: White 126, Black 159
Position ID: xeYcAwTQtg1kCA Match ID: UQnqACAAKAAA

• Black moves 16/10

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	16/10	-0,003
			0,611 0,126 0,003 - 0,389 0,155 0,004
	2	2	22/18 16/14	-0,037 ( -0,034)
			0,601 0,121 0,003 - 0,399 0,165 0,004
	3	2	22/16	-0,041 ( -0,038)
			0,594 0,103 0,002 - 0,406 0,159 0,004
	4	2	18/16 18/14	-0,095 ( -0,093)
			0,599 0,123 0,003 - 0,401 0,202 0,007
	5	0	18/14 16/14	-0,112 ( -0,109)
			0,602 0,101 0,002 - 0,398 0,217 0,007

Annotation

Threatening to full prime White is big.

Move number 29: White to play 42

Pip counts: White 126, Black 153
Position ID: 0LYdYAjF5hwDBA Match ID: EQHqACAAKAAA

• White moves 8/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/2	-0,072
			0,367 0,136 0,002 - 0,633 0,128 0,005
	2	2	10/6 8/6	-0,097 ( -0,025)
			0,352 0,138 0,003 - 0,648 0,136 0,006
	3	2	5/3* 5/1	-0,118 ( -0,045)
			0,347 0,131 0,003 - 0,653 0,169 0,006
	4	2	10/4	-0,125 ( -0,053)
			0,346 0,127 0,002 - 0,654 0,151 0,007
	5	2	8/4 6/4	-0,165 ( -0,093)
			0,335 0,115 0,002 - 0,665 0,162 0,007

Move number 30: Black to play 52

Pip counts: White 120, Black 153
Position ID: jc0cAwTQth1gCA Match ID: UYnqACAAKAAA

• Black moves 18/16 10/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	18/16 10/5	+0,362
			0,755 0,123 0,004 - 0,245 0,102 0,003
	2	0	10/8 10/5	-0,174 ( -0,536)
			0,536 0,126 0,002 - 0,464 0,170 0,005
	3	0	10/5 7/5	-0,213 ( -0,575)
			0,540 0,139 0,003 - 0,460 0,199 0,008
	4	0	10/5 9/7	-0,231 ( -0,593)
			0,515 0,127 0,002 - 0,485 0,180 0,006
	5	0	10/3	-0,250 ( -0,611)
			0,546 0,120 0,002 - 0,454 0,233 0,009

Move number 31: White to play 33

Pip counts: White 120, Black 146
Position ID: sG0bSAiNzRwDBA Match ID: EYHtACAAKAAA

• White moves 10/7*/4(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	10/7*/4(2)	-0,299
			0,271 0,108 0,004 - 0,729 0,111 0,004
	2	2	13/7*(2)	-0,356 ( -0,058)
			0,253 0,096 0,002 - 0,747 0,121 0,004
	3	2	10/7*/4 10/7(2)	-0,364 ( -0,065)
			0,253 0,090 0,002 - 0,747 0,157 0,006
	4	2	10/7* 8/5 6/3*(2)	-0,380 ( -0,081)
			0,239 0,097 0,004 - 0,761 0,147 0,009
	5	2	10/7*/1 8/5	-0,399 ( -0,100)
			0,229 0,099 0,003 - 0,771 0,110 0,004

Annotation

White wins nothing by attacking since he is now fully primed. But nor can he create a full counter-prime since one hole will remain even after the closest to priming he achieves with 13/7*(2). So he does best to advance the cheesy prime, sparing a lot of timing pips in the process. It is always possible that Black will roll a blocked number at some point and crack.

Move number 32: Black to play 53

Pip counts: White 108, Black 153
Position ID: zTYTAwSwbRsIRA Match ID: UYnuACAAKAAA

• Black moves bar/22 16/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/22 16/11	+0,464
			0,765 0,118 0,001 - 0,235 0,046 0,001
	2	0	bar/22 9/4*	-0,284 ( -0,748)
			0,554 0,135 0,003 - 0,446 0,258 0,019
	3	0	bar/22 10/5	-0,433 ( -0,898)
			0,470 0,103 0,002 - 0,530 0,252 0,011
	4	0	bar/22 8/3	-0,484 ( -0,948)
			0,453 0,105 0,002 - 0,547 0,260 0,016
	5	0	bar/22 7/2	-0,632 ( -1,096)
			0,419 0,095 0,002 - 0,581 0,312 0,020

Move number 33: White to play 61

Pip counts: White 108, Black 145
Position ID: sG1bAAzNNhMDBA Match ID: EQHnACAAKAAA

• White moves 13/12 13/7

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,044)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/6	-0,410
			0,241 0,076 0,001 - 0,759 0,115 0,004
	2	2	13/7 2/1	-0,433 ( -0,023)
			0,233 0,071 0,001 - 0,767 0,153 0,008
	3	2	13/7 8/7	-0,433 ( -0,023)
			0,234 0,069 0,001 - 0,766 0,143 0,006
	4	2	8/1	-0,446 ( -0,035)
			0,227 0,070 0,001 - 0,773 0,127 0,004
•	5	2	13/12 13/7	-0,455 ( -0,044)
			0,225 0,067 0,001 - 0,775 0,144 0,007

Annotation

I fell for the trap of overdoing score-oriented plays when losing a gammon doesn't count : often the best move to win is the same as the best move not to lose a gammon !

Leaving a slot is tempting, but gives few results when it works, because if White manages to make the fifth point of the prime, he will probably have to break it the turn after. Still that one turn could still possibly be game-turning, such volatile that priming games are.

The problem is rather than getting hit does not cost only gammons, but generally also gives Black the time to extract at least one checker completely. If White anchors in return, great for him, but he is not favourite to do so and will not win more than some 20% of games if he does so anyway.

Move number 34: Black to play 65

Pip counts: White 101, Black 145
Position ID: zbYmAQSwbVsADA Match ID: UQn3ACAAKAAA

• Black moves 22/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	22/11	+0,568
			0,820 0,079 0,002 - 0,180 0,050 0,001
	2	2	10/4* 9/4	+0,502 ( -0,066)
			0,797 0,196 0,008 - 0,203 0,064 0,002
	3	0	22/16 11/6	+0,331 ( -0,237)
			0,740 0,097 0,004 - 0,260 0,104 0,002
	4	0	11/6 10/4*	+0,092 ( -0,476)
			0,660 0,162 0,005 - 0,340 0,155 0,006
	5	0	10/5 10/4*	+0,073 ( -0,494)
			0,653 0,160 0,005 - 0,347 0,158 0,006

Move number 35: White to play 31

Pip counts: White 101, Black 134
Position ID: sG3bAAjNtiYBBA Match ID: EYHlACAAKAAA

• White moves 12/11 10/7

Alert: doubtful move ( -0,031)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	12/9 10/9	-0,481
			0,212 0,066 0,001 - 0,788 0,119 0,004
•	2	2	12/11 10/7	-0,512 ( -0,031)
			0,198 0,064 0,001 - 0,802 0,096 0,003
	3	2	10/7 2/1	-0,529 ( -0,048)
			0,193 0,060 0,000 - 0,807 0,089 0,002
	4	2	12/9 8/7	-0,534 ( -0,052)
			0,201 0,046 0,000 - 0,799 0,134 0,005
	5	2	8/7 8/5	-0,551 ( -0,070)
			0,188 0,052 0,000 - 0,812 0,089 0,003

Annotation

That one was a pretty silly oversight. There is tension when one slots, and after one gets away with it, there is tension again about whether one will cover the slot. Here is a covering roll ; yippeee, see how I can make my checkers work at full efficiency when it is really needed !

Apart from those psychological considerations, it is clear that blocking sixes with 12/9 10/9 is much better than blocking fours, and indeed better enough to compensate for leaving the slot uncovered.

Move number 36: Black to play 21

Pip counts: White 97, Black 134
Position ID: zbaNAASwbdsACA Match ID: UQnlACAAKAAA

• Black moves 11/10 11/9

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	11/10 11/9	+0,514
			0,800 0,097 0,002 - 0,200 0,061 0,001
	2	2	11/8	+0,479 ( -0,035)
			0,792 0,122 0,004 - 0,208 0,073 0,001
	3	0	5/4* 5/3	-0,085 ( -0,599)
			0,611 0,075 0,002 - 0,389 0,211 0,006
	4	0	5/4*/2	-0,367 ( -0,881)
			0,528 0,068 0,002 - 0,472 0,292 0,008
	5	0	5/2	-0,382 ( -0,896)
			0,545 0,070 0,002 - 0,455 0,331 0,005

Move number 37: White to play 66

Pip counts: White 97, Black 131
Position ID: sG13AAjNto0ABA Match ID: EQH7ACAAKAAA

• White moves 11/5 8/2 7/1(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	11/5 8/2 7/1(2)	-0,730
			0,111 0,034 0,000 - 0,889 0,104 0,001
	2	2	8/2(2) 7/1(2)	-0,730 ( -0,001)
			0,114 0,030 0,000 - 0,886 0,106 0,001
	3	2	11/5 8/2(2) 7/1	-0,733 ( -0,003)
			0,112 0,031 0,000 - 0,888 0,099 0,001

Annotation

Move number 38: Black to play 62

Pip counts: White 73, Black 131
Position ID: d3YTAASwbXcACA Match ID: UQnrACAAKAAA

• Black moves 22/14

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	22/16 10/8	+0,811
			0,915 0,079 0,000 - 0,085 0,013 0,000
	2	2	10/4* 9/7	+0,809 ( -0,002)
			0,917 0,138 0,002 - 0,083 0,018 0,000
	3	2	22/16 9/7	+0,809 ( -0,002)
			0,916 0,080 0,000 - 0,084 0,016 0,000
•	4	2	22/14	+0,808 ( -0,002)
			0,915 0,076 0,000 - 0,085 0,015 0,000
	5	2	10/4*/2	+0,769 ( -0,042)
			0,896 0,104 0,001 - 0,104 0,016 0,000

Move number 39: White to play 62

Pip counts: White 73, Black 123
Position ID: sG13CAB3dhMABA Match ID: EQHrACAAKAAA

• White moves 8/2 5/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	8/2 6/4	-0,732
			0,116 0,026 0,000 - 0,884 0,066 0,000
•	2	2	8/2 5/3	-0,762 ( -0,030)
			0,102 0,024 0,000 - 0,898 0,079 0,000
	3	2	8/2 4/2	-0,764 ( -0,032)
			0,101 0,024 0,000 - 0,899 0,105 0,001

Annotation

Those crashing plays are often more tricky than they look. Indeed, they are tricky enough that I don't understand what is going on here. Sure leaving a blot in White's board just when he is going to get hit is leading to more lost gammons, but why also more lost games ? Getting a second checker sent back seems to be rather good news here, since it might give White an anchor. Is it possible that GNU is not good enough a prime-roller and that it underestimates Black's chances after the "safe" 8/2 6/4 ?

Move number 40: Black to play 31

Pip counts: White 65, Black 123
Position ID: 99oGAASwbXcIAA Match ID: UYnlACAAKAAA

• Black moves 14/11 9/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	10/6	+0,809
			0,914 0,094 0,001 - 0,086 0,013 0,000
	2	2	10/7 9/8	+0,799 ( -0,010)
			0,910 0,088 0,000 - 0,090 0,015 0,000
	3	2	14/13 10/7	+0,793 ( -0,016)
			0,907 0,089 0,000 - 0,093 0,015 0,000
•	4	2	14/11 9/8	+0,789 ( -0,020)
			0,907 0,088 0,000 - 0,093 0,017 0,000
	5	2	14/13 9/6	+0,786 ( -0,023)
			0,904 0,089 0,001 - 0,096 0,015 0,000

Annotation

I am a bit lost again here. Black wants the best odds at hitting the blot while retaining the full prime and the game move seems to achieve that. There does not seem to be a significant difference after the dreadful prime-breakers 55 and 44.

Move number 41: White to play 52

Pip counts: White 65, Black 119
Position ID: sO12AQD32gYABA Match ID: EYHqACAAKAAA

• White moves 6/1 5/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/1 5/3	-0,758
			0,103 0,025 0,000 - 0,897 0,076 0,000
	2	2	6/4 6/1	-0,759 ( -0,001)
			0,103 0,025 0,000 - 0,897 0,092 0,000
	3	2	6/1 3/1	-0,765 ( -0,007)
			0,102 0,022 0,000 - 0,898 0,112 0,001
	4	2	6/1 4/2	-0,778 ( -0,020)
			0,097 0,019 0,000 - 0,903 0,161 0,002

Move number 42: Black to play 32

Pip counts: White 58, Black 119
Position ID: 720FAASw7XYBAA Match ID: UYnpACAAKAAA

• Black moves 11/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	11/9 10/7	+0,767
			0,893 0,078 0,001 - 0,107 0,013 0,000
•	2	2	11/6	+0,756 ( -0,012)
			0,889 0,078 0,001 - 0,111 0,016 0,000
	3	2	10/7 8/6	+0,745 ( -0,022)
			0,884 0,079 0,001 - 0,116 0,017 0,000
	4	2	11/9 8/5	+0,740 ( -0,027)
			0,881 0,075 0,001 - 0,119 0,016 0,000
	5	2	10/5	+0,734 ( -0,033)
			0,879 0,075 0,000 - 0,121 0,016 0,000

Annotation

Hmm, sure GNU's move does look good too, but after the game move every roll except 53 hits cleanly, right ?

Move number 43: White to play 53

Pip counts: White 58, Black 114
Position ID: sNvtAADvbQUABA Match ID: EYHuACAAKAAA

• White moves 6/1 5/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/1 5/2	-0,759
			0,108 0,018 0,000 - 0,892 0,076 0,001
	2	2	6/1 4/1	-0,767 ( -0,008)
			0,104 0,018 0,000 - 0,896 0,122 0,001

Move number 44: Black to play 41

Pip counts: White 50, Black 114
Position ID: 37cBAASw2+0AAA Match ID: UQnmACAAKAAA

• Black moves 10/9 8/4*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	10/9 8/4*	+0,795
			0,905 0,089 0,003 - 0,095 0,010 0,000
	2	2	8/4* 6/5	+0,766 ( -0,029)
			0,891 0,087 0,002 - 0,109 0,012 0,000
	3	2	10/5	+0,762 ( -0,033)
			0,888 0,069 0,003 - 0,112 0,010 0,000
	4	2	8/4*/3	+0,730 ( -0,065)
			0,877 0,079 0,002 - 0,123 0,018 0,000
	5	2	8/3	+0,724 ( -0,071)
			0,875 0,086 0,002 - 0,125 0,019 0,000

Move number 45: White to play 44

Pip counts: White 54, Black 109
Position ID: aLfdAADftwEAQA Match ID: EQHyACAAKAAA

• White moves bar/21*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/21*	-0,771
			0,094 0,029 0,001 - 0,906 0,071 0,000

Move number 46: Black to play 55

Pip counts: White 50, Black 130
Position ID: 37cBAASw224AQA Match ID: UYn2ACAAKAAA

• Black moves bar/10 9/4*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/10 9/4*	+0,775
			0,895 0,088 0,002 - 0,105 0,011 0,000
	2	2	bar/5	+0,754 ( -0,021)
			0,884 0,069 0,003 - 0,116 0,011 0,000
	3	2	bar/20 10/5 9/4*(2)	+0,705 ( -0,070)
			0,869 0,066 0,001 - 0,131 0,024 0,000
	4	2	bar/15 9/4*(2)	+0,703 ( -0,072)
			0,868 0,062 0,002 - 0,132 0,024 0,000
	5	2	bar/15 9/4* 6/1	+0,687 ( -0,088)
			0,860 0,082 0,002 - 0,140 0,023 0,000

Move number 47: White to play 31

Pip counts: White 54, Black 110
Position ID: aLftAADftwEAQA Match ID: EYHlACAAKAAA

• White moves bar/21*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	bar/22 2/1	-0,753
			0,111 0,018 0,000 - 0,889 0,071 0,000
•	2	2	bar/21*	-0,764 ( -0,011)
			0,105 0,019 0,000 - 0,895 0,095 0,000
	3	2	bar/22 4/3	-0,764 ( -0,011)
			0,106 0,017 0,000 - 0,894 0,062 0,000
	4	2	bar/22 3/2	-0,771 ( -0,018)
			0,105 0,014 0,000 - 0,895 0,100 0,000
	5	2	bar/24 4/1	-0,773 ( -0,020)
			0,104 0,013 0,000 - 0,896 0,075 0,001

Annotation

I was beginning to play too quickly here and that one escaped my attention. Clearly staying on the 22 must put more pressure on Black after he makes the four point, which is probable, while the hit just buys the opponent some timing.

Move number 48: Black to play 63

Pip counts: White 50, Black 131
Position ID: 37cBAASw23YAQA Match ID: UQnvACAAKAAA

• Black moves bar/16

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/16	+0,787
			0,903 0,078 0,002 - 0,097 0,013 0,000
	2	2	bar/19 10/7	+0,785 ( -0,003)
			0,902 0,077 0,002 - 0,098 0,014 0,000
	3	2	bar/19 6/3	+0,708 ( -0,080)
			0,876 0,087 0,002 - 0,124 0,031 0,000
	4	0	bar/19 5/2	+0,328 ( -0,460)
			0,749 0,066 0,001 - 0,251 0,121 0,000
	5	0	bar/19 7/4*	+0,284 ( -0,503)
			0,728 0,055 0,001 - 0,272 0,122 0,000

Move number 49: White to play 44

Pip counts: White 50, Black 122
Position ID: sNt2IADftwEABA Match ID: EQHyACAAKAAA

• White cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 50: Black to play 53

Pip counts: White 50, Black 122
Position ID: 37cBAASw23YgAA Match ID: UYnuACAAKAAA

• Black moves 16/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	16/8	+0,777
			0,897 0,084 0,003 - 0,103 0,012 0,000
	2	2	16/11 10/7	+0,761 ( -0,015)
			0,889 0,075 0,002 - 0,111 0,012 0,000
	3	2	16/13 10/5	+0,749 ( -0,027)
			0,883 0,074 0,003 - 0,117 0,012 0,000
	4	2	16/11 6/3	+0,732 ( -0,045)
			0,881 0,088 0,003 - 0,119 0,022 0,000
	5	2	10/5 6/3	+0,715 ( -0,062)
			0,874 0,077 0,002 - 0,126 0,024 0,000

Move number 51: White to play 43

Pip counts: White 50, Black 114
Position ID: sNvtAADftwEABA Match ID: EQHuACAAKAAA

• White moves 4/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	4/1	-0,764
			0,109 0,013 0,000 - 0,891 0,088 0,001

Move number 52: Black to play 32

Pip counts: White 47, Black 114
Position ID: v28BAASw2+0AAA Match ID: UYnpACAAKAAA

• Black moves 10/7 6/4*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	10/7 6/4*	+0,806
			0,910 0,101 0,003 - 0,090 0,011 0,000
	2	2	10/5	+0,775 ( -0,031)
			0,894 0,072 0,002 - 0,106 0,009 0,000
	3	2	8/5 6/4*	+0,769 ( -0,037)
			0,893 0,103 0,003 - 0,107 0,012 0,000
	4	2	10/8 6/3	+0,743 ( -0,062)
			0,883 0,079 0,002 - 0,117 0,017 0,000
	5	2	10/7 8/6	+0,738 ( -0,068)
			0,877 0,074 0,002 - 0,123 0,011 0,000

Move number 53: White to play 53

Pip counts: White 51, Black 109
Position ID: aLvbAAC/bwEAQA Match ID: EYHuACAAKAAA

• White moves bar/22

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/22	-0,802
			0,091 0,012 0,000 - 0,909 0,077 0,001

Move number 54: Black to play 41

Pip counts: White 48, Black 109
Position ID: v28BAAhou9sAAA Match ID: UQnmACAAKAAA

• Black moves 10/9 8/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	10/9 8/4	+0,844
			0,926 0,103 0,005 - 0,074 0,006 0,000
	2	2	8/4 7/6	+0,811 ( -0,033)
			0,910 0,078 0,002 - 0,090 0,006 0,000
	3	2	8/3*	+0,788 ( -0,056)
			0,906 0,121 0,003 - 0,094 0,018 0,000
	4	2	7/2	+0,743 ( -0,100)
			0,883 0,093 0,002 - 0,117 0,017 0,000
	5	2	7/3*/2	+0,742 ( -0,102)
			0,885 0,115 0,004 - 0,115 0,019 0,000

Move number 55: White to play 21

Pip counts: White 48, Black 104
Position ID: 2Ha7AAC/bwEACA Match ID: EQHlACAAKAAA

• White moves 4/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	4/1	-0,838
			0,076 0,007 0,000 - 0,924 0,066 0,000
	2	2	3/1 2/1	-0,840 ( -0,002)
			0,075 0,007 0,000 - 0,925 0,131 0,000
	3	2	4/2 3/2	-0,842 ( -0,005)
			0,074 0,007 0,000 - 0,926 0,089 0,000
	4	2	3/2 3/1	-0,844 ( -0,006)
			0,074 0,007 0,000 - 0,926 0,088 0,000

Move number 56: Black to play 55

Pip counts: White 45, Black 104
Position ID: f98AAAjYdrsAAA Match ID: UYn2ACAAKAAA

• Black moves 8/3*(2) 7/2(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/3*(2) 7/2(2)	+0,782
			0,895 0,047 0,000 - 0,105 0,005 0,000
	2	2	10/5 9/4 8/3*(2)	+0,659 ( -0,123)
			0,832 0,048 0,001 - 0,168 0,003 0,000
	3	2	9/4 8/3*(2) 7/2	+0,649 ( -0,134)
			0,835 0,053 0,001 - 0,165 0,016 0,000
	4	2	9/4(2) 8/3*(2)	+0,643 ( -0,140)
			0,823 0,046 0,001 - 0,177 0,003 0,000
	5	2	10/5 8/3*(2) 7/2	+0,624 ( -0,159)
			0,820 0,052 0,001 - 0,180 0,012 0,000

Annotation

After that prime breaker Black has to leave an indirect shot, since the prime would be too difficult to reassemble otherwise.

Move number 57: White to play 41

Pip counts: White 48, Black 84
Position ID: tm25AAB/3wAAQA Match ID: EQHmACAAKAAA

• White moves bar/24

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/24	-0,718
			0,134 0,009 0,000 - 0,866 0,037 0,000

Move number 58: Black to play 62

Pip counts: White 47, Black 84
Position ID: f98AACC2bbkAAA Match ID: UQnrACAAKAAA

• Black moves 9/7 9/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	9/7 9/3	+0,859
			0,930 0,055 0,001 - 0,070 0,001 0,000
	2	2	10/4 9/7	+0,854 ( -0,004)
			0,928 0,053 0,000 - 0,072 0,001 0,000
	3	2	9/1*	+0,716 ( -0,143)
			0,879 0,053 0,000 - 0,121 0,029 0,000
	4	0	10/8 7/1*	+0,674 ( -0,185)
			0,848 0,049 0,001 - 0,152 0,016 0,000
	5	0	7/1* 3/1	+0,457 ( -0,402)
			0,747 0,043 0,000 - 0,253 0,027 0,000

Move number 59: White to play 53

Pip counts: White 47, Black 76
Position ID: dtumAAB/3wAAIA Match ID: EYHuACAAKAAA

• White cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 60: Black to play 41

Pip counts: White 47, Black 76
Position ID: f98AACB226YAAA Match ID: UQnmACAAKAAA

• Black moves 10/6 9/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	10/6 9/8	+0,858
			0,929 0,051 0,001 - 0,071 0,000 0,000
	2	2	10/6 3/2	+0,854 ( -0,004)
			0,927 0,051 0,001 - 0,073 0,001 0,000
	3	2	10/5	+0,853 ( -0,005)
			0,927 0,049 0,001 - 0,073 0,000 0,000
	4	2	9/4	+0,841 ( -0,017)
			0,921 0,049 0,000 - 0,079 0,001 0,000
	5	2	9/5 3/2	+0,839 ( -0,019)
			0,920 0,049 0,001 - 0,080 0,001 0,000

Move number 61: White to play 66

Pip counts: White 47, Black 71
Position ID: dtstAAB/3wAAIA Match ID: EQH7ACAAKAAA

• White cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 62: Black to play 33

Pip counts: White 47, Black 71
Position ID: f98AACB22y0AAA Match ID: UYntACAAKAAA

• Black moves 7/1*(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	7/1*(2)	+0,912
			0,956 0,025 0,000 - 0,044 0,000 0,000
	2	2	8/5 7/1* 7/4	+0,762 ( -0,150)
			0,883 0,044 0,000 - 0,117 0,002 0,000
	3	0	8/2 7/1*	+0,722 ( -0,190)
			0,864 0,041 0,000 - 0,136 0,004 0,000
	4	0	8/5 7/1* 6/3	+0,693 ( -0,219)
			0,849 0,037 0,000 - 0,151 0,004 0,000
	5	0	7/1* 7/4 6/3	+0,683 ( -0,229)
			0,844 0,035 0,000 - 0,156 0,003 0,000

Move number 63: White to play 66

Pip counts: White 48, Black 59
Position ID: 220nAAB/3wAAQA Match ID: EQH7ACAAKAAA

• White cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 64: Black to play 42

Pip counts: White 48, Black 59
Position ID: f98AAEDbbScAAA Match ID: UQnqACAAKAAA

• Black moves 8/4 6/4

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/4 6/4	+0,901
			0,951 0,022 0,000 - 0,049 0,000 0,000
	2	2	8/4 3/1	+0,894 ( -0,007)
			0,947 0,027 0,000 - 0,053 0,000 0,000
	3	2	8/2	+0,877 ( -0,025)
			0,938 0,025 0,000 - 0,062 0,000 0,000
	4	2	6/2 3/1	+0,850 ( -0,051)
			0,925 0,022 0,000 - 0,075 0,000 0,000
	5	0	8/4 2/off	+0,680 ( -0,221)
			0,840 0,036 0,000 - 0,160 0,000 0,000

Annotation

Even when gammons don't count, a safe bear-off is not always best, since White retains some small running chances with his speed board. That is why 8/4 3/1, leaving shots on 66, 55 or 65, but making it sure that Black won't have to clear the six point next move, is almost as good as the safe game move.

Move number 65: White to play 66

Pip counts: White 48, Black 53
Position ID: 270NAAB/3wAAQA Match ID: EQH7ACAAKAAA

• White cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 66: Black to play 44

Pip counts: White 48, Black 53
Position ID: f98AAEDbvQ0AAA Match ID: UQnyACAAKAAA

• Black moves 6/2(2) 4/off(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	4/off(4)	+0,966
			0,983 0,046 0,000 - 0,017 0,000 0,000
•	2	2	6/2(2) 4/off(2)	+0,957 ( -0,009)
			0,978 0,024 0,000 - 0,022 0,000 0,000
	3	2	5/1(2) 4/off(2)	+0,926 ( -0,039)
			0,963 0,020 0,000 - 0,037 0,000 0,000
	4	2	6/2(2) 5/1(2)	+0,861 ( -0,104)
			0,931 0,007 0,000 - 0,069 0,000 0,000
	5	0	6/2(2) 5/1 4/off	+0,628 ( -0,337)
			0,814 0,012 0,000 - 0,186 0,000 0,000

Annotation

And this time the speedy move is slightly better than the safe game move !

Move number 67: White to play 62

Pip counts: White 48, Black 37
Position ID: e7cBAMDfNwAAEA Match ID: EQHrACAAKAAA

• White moves bar/17

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/17	-0,961
			0,020 0,000 0,000 - 0,980 0,000 0,000
	2	2	bar/19 3/1	-0,970 ( -0,009)
			0,015 0,000 0,000 - 0,985 0,000 0,000

Move number 68: Black to play 52

Pip counts: White 40, Black 37
Position ID: f98AQAB7twEAAA Match ID: UYnqACAAKAAA

• Black moves 5/off 2/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	5/off 2/off	+0,959
			0,979 0,000 0,000 - 0,021 0,000 0,000
	2	2	5/off 3/1	+0,936 ( -0,023)
			0,968 0,000 0,000 - 0,032 0,000 0,000
	3	2	5/3 5/off	+0,923 ( -0,036)
			0,961 0,000 0,000 - 0,039 0,000 0,000
	4	2	5/off 4/2	+0,922 ( -0,037)
			0,961 0,000 0,000 - 0,039 0,000 0,000

Move number 69: White to play 42

Pip counts: White 40, Black 30
Position ID: u1sAAPD3DQAEAA Match ID: EQHqACAAKAAA

• White moves 17/11

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	17/11	-0,987
			0,007 0,000 0,000 - 0,993 0,000 0,000
	2	2	17/13 3/1	-0,995 ( -0,008)
			0,002 0,000 0,000 - 0,998 0,000 0,000

Move number 70: Black to play 22

Pip counts: White 34, Black 30
Position ID: f98AAQC7WwAAAA Match ID: UQnpACAAKAAA

• Black moves 4/off 2/off(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	4/off 2/off(2)	+0,995
			0,997 0,000 0,000 - 0,003 0,000 0,000
	2	2	3/1 2/off(3)	+0,992 ( -0,002)
			0,996 0,000 0,000 - 0,004 0,000 0,000
	3	2	5/3 2/off(3)	+0,989 ( -0,005)
			0,995 0,000 0,000 - 0,005 0,000 0,000
	4	2	4/off 3/1 2/off	+0,989 ( -0,006)
			0,994 0,000 0,000 - 0,006 0,000 0,000
	5	2	4/off(2)	+0,987 ( -0,007)
			0,994 0,000 0,000 - 0,006 0,000 0,000

Move number 71: White to play 64

Pip counts: White 34, Black 22
Position ID: 6woAAP6+AQIAAA Match ID: EQHzACAAKAAA

• White moves 11/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	11/1	-0,999
			0,000 0,000 0,000 - 1,000 0,000 0,000

Move number 72: Black to play 61

Pip counts: White 24, Black 22
Position ID: /74BAADrCgAAAA Match ID: UQnnACAAKAAA

• Black moves 5/off 1/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	5/off 1/off	+0,999
			1,000 0,000 0,000 - 0,000 0,000 0,000
	2	2	5/off 3/2	+0,999 ( -0,000)
			0,999 0,000 0,000 - 0,001 0,000 0,000
	3	2	5/off	+0,998 ( -0,001)
			0,999 0,000 0,000 - 0,001 0,000 0,000
	4	2	5/off 4/3	+0,998 ( -0,002)
			0,999 0,000 0,000 - 0,001 0,000 0,000
	5	2	5/off 2/1	+0,998 ( -0,002)
			0,999 0,000 0,000 - 0,001 0,000 0,000

Move number 73: White to play 52

Pip counts: White 24, Black 16
Position ID: dQEAgH/fAAAAAA Match ID: EYHqACAAKAAA

• White moves 3/off 2/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	3/1 3/off	-1,000
			0,000 0,000 0,000 - 1,000 0,000 0,000
•	??	2	3/off 2/off	-1,000 ( +0,000)
			0,000 0,000 0,000 - 1,000 0,000 0,000

Move number 74: Black to play 62

Pip counts: White 19, Black 16
Position ID: /14AAEBdAAAAAA Match ID: UQnrACAAKAAA

• Black moves 4/off 2/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	4/off 3/1	+1,000
			1,000 0,000 0,000 - 0,000 0,000 0,000
•	2	2	4/off 2/off	+1,000 ( +0,000)
			1,000 0,000 0,000 - 0,000 0,000 0,000
	3	2	4/2 3/off	+1,000 ( -0,000)
			1,000 0,000 0,000 - 0,000 0,000 0,000

Move number 75: White to play 41

Pip counts: White 19, Black 10
Position ID: OQAA4N8LAAAAAA Match ID: EQHmACAAKAAA

• White moves 3/off 1/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	3/off	-1,000
			0,000 0,000 0,000 - 1,000 0,000 0,000
	2	2	3/off 2/1	-1,000 ( +0,000)
			0,000 0,000 0,000 - 1,000 0,000 0,000
•	??	2	3/off 1/off	-1,000 ( +0,000)
			0,000 0,000 0,000 - 1,000 0,000 0,000

Move number 76: Black to play 62

Pip counts: White 15, Black 10
Position ID: fw8AAJADAAAAAA Match ID: UQnrACAAKAAA

• Black moves 3/1 3/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	3/1 3/off	+1,000
			1,000 0,000 0,000 - 0,000 0,000 0,000

Black wins 2 points

Game statistics for game 5
Player	White	Black
Checker play statistics
Total moves	37	38
Unforced moves	26	35
Unmarked moves	0	1
Moves marked good	29	35
Moves marked doubtful	8	1
Moves marked bad	0	1
Moves marked very bad	0	0
Error rate (total)	-0,327 ( -6,539%)	-0,229 ( -4,589%)
Error rate (per move)	-12,6 ( -0,251%)	-6,5 ( -0,131%)
Chequerplay rating	Intermediate	Expert
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	0	0
Rolls marked lucky	1	0
Rolls unmarked	36	37
Rolls marked unlucky	0	0
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	0
Luck rate (total)	-0,646 (-18,082%)	+0,465 ( +9,222%)
Luck rate (per move)	-17,5 ( -0,489%)	+12,2 ( +0,243%)
Luck rating	None	None
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	3	3
Close or actual cube decisions	3	1
Doubles	1	0
Takes	0	1
Passes	0	0
Missed doubles (below CP)	0	0
Missed doubles (above CP)	0	0
Wrong doubles (below DP)	0	0
Wrong doubles (above TG)	0	0
Wrong takes	0	1 (-0,020 ( -0,173%))
Wrong passes	0	0
Error rate (total)	+0,000	-0,020 ( -0,173%)
Error rate (per cube decision)	+0,0	-20,0 ( -0,173%)
Cube decision rating	Supernatural	Casual player
Overall statistics
Error rate (total)	-0,327 ( -6,539%)	-0,249 ( -4,762%)
Error rate (per decision)	-11,3 ( -0,225%)	-6,9 ( -0,132%)
Equiv. Snowie error rate	-4,4	-3,3
Overall rating	Advanced	Expert
Actual result	-25,48%	+25,48%
Luck adjusted result	+1,83%	-1,83%

Match statistics
Player	White	Black
Checker play statistics
Total moves	80	80
Unforced moves	40	72
Unmarked moves	4	2
Moves marked good	67	72
Moves marked doubtful	9	4
Moves marked bad	0	2
Moves marked very bad	0	0
Error rate (total)	-0,393 ( -6,961%)	-0,446 ( -7,221%)
Error rate (per move)	-9,8 ( -0,174%)	-6,2 ( -0,100%)
Chequerplay rating	Advanced	Expert
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	2	0
Rolls marked lucky	2	4
Rolls unmarked	66	73
Rolls marked unlucky	6	0
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	1
Luck rate (total)	-1,127 (-22,972%)	+1,245 (+22,112%)
Luck rate (per move)	-14,1 ( -0,287%)	+15,6 ( +0,276%)
Luck rating	None	None
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	46	22
Close or actual cube decisions	13	5
Doubles	3	2
Takes	1	1
Passes	1	2
Missed doubles (below CP)	0	0
Missed doubles (above CP)	1 (-0,083 ( -0,630%))	0
Wrong doubles (below DP)	0	0
Wrong doubles (above TG)	1 (-0,006 ( -0,042%))	0
Wrong takes	1 (-0,042 ( -0,267%))	1 (-0,020 ( -0,173%))
Wrong passes	0	1 (-0,057 ( -0,431%))
Error rate (total)	-0,132 ( -0,938%)	-0,077 ( -0,604%)
Error rate (per cube decision)	-10,1 ( -0,072%)	-15,4 ( -0,121%)
Cube decision rating	Advanced	Intermediate
Overall statistics
Error rate (total)	-0,525 ( -7,899%)	-0,523 ( -7,825%)
Error rate (per decision)	-9,9 ( -0,149%)	-6,8 ( -0,102%)
Equiv. Snowie error rate	-3,3	-3,3
Overall rating	Advanced	Expert
Actual result	-50,00%	+50,00%
Luck adjusted result	-4,92%	+4,92%
Luck based FIBS rating diff.	-2100,00
Error based abs. FIBS rating	1919,6	1960,7
Chequerplay errors rating loss	122,4	77,2
Cube errors rating loss	8,0	12,1

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